Why HD-DVD / Blue-ray Combo Players Are A Bad Idea
Ars Technicha is reporting that rumors of a hybrid HD DVDThe easiest way to describe the format battle going on right now is the old VHS vs. Beta parable. As we all know, VHS prevailed, a bunch of people were stuck with useless players, the home video market boomed and the rest - history. Fast forward to today - lots of speculation on which of the two formats will prevail.
A hybrid player would however, change the game. They are just rumors as of right now but it's almost guaranteed that they will eventually show up on store shelves. Even if the store shelves happen to be some shady Japanese porn/convenience store.
Neither format would necessarily need to prevail if a hybrid player was readily available. The two could peacefully coexist on the shelves of your entertainment system. And if two formats could coexist while still being profitable, why not three? Why shouldn't Nintendo's next console use their own proprietary format disc? I would call it Wii-VD.Why then couldn't the major movie studios develop their own formats too? Each could have unique copy protection systems and they could make a bundle licensing their format to the companies making the players and smaller studios. We could end up with ten to fifteen different formats for high-def discs. The terrible downside would be the ten to fifteen players on the store shelves plus the handful of universal players that play all or most of the formats. If such a scenario seems far-fetched, look at the digital audio formats available (mp3, aif, au, wma, wav, flac, ogg, vqf, etc.) and all of the media players. Now look at which players play which formats(s). Not so far-fetched.
Formats would quietly disappear, some would consolidate and new ones would emerge. The capabilities of the home player would constantly need to be expanded and adapted to the format market. The shelf life of your player would be no more than 2 years. Of course the player manufacturers would have no complaints.
The entertainment industry would be putting so much focus and capital into developing proprietary formats there would be less attention given to actually advancing the technology. Money that could be spent on newer concepts like Holographic Versatile Discs (HVD - 1 TB of data with a transfer rate of 1 Gbit/s) would be squandered by lateral development.If anyone were to profit from a situation like this it would be the movie theaters. Surely they would see a rebounding effect when people can't/won't keep up with the newest formats.
In conclusion, someone needs to pick a prevailing format and soon. The public could pick but things seem pretty divided right now. The format backers could pick but a Sony/Microsoft agreement is a little unlikely. Who then? The FCC? Would I support government involvement in my home theater's future? I don't know but if anyone's going to make my console's resale value drop, I would rather blame it on the government - it's just easier.
Slyck News' Interview with muslix64 developer of BackupHDDVD
UPDATE 01-08-08: Warner Brothers has confirmed that they will be going with Blue-Ray exclusively this May.
UPDATE 02-08:in February, 2008, Toshiba abandoned the format, announcing it would no longer develop or manufacture HD DVD players. Anyone who bought one or a HD DVD player gambled and lost. This post is no longer relevant.
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Comments
Honestly, I haven't invested a dime in either technology - including a new console. I think I have a fairly objective view of the situation.
VCDs have a much smaller storage size and Laser discs were huge and awkward. Blue-ray and HD-DVD are almost identical. DVD+r and DVD-r are a good example but they don't affect the commercial DVD (movie) market - it's not something to consider when buying DVD movies.
I don't think anyone will pick one over the other because of quality - the quality is almost identical.
It doesn't matter wether or not the consoles play videos, hi-def disc players are dropping in price and headed for homes everywhere. If Sony was the only company to own a movie studio, this wouldn't be an issue. Movie studios see pirating as a money siphon and will foam at the mouth at the idea of their own copy protection (Blue-ray and HD-DVD both have their own different copy protections).
The Blu-ray Disc is a similar format to PDD, another optical disc format developed by Sony (which has been available since 2004) but offering higher data transfer speeds. PDD was not intended for home video use and was aimed at business data archiving and backup, although currently it is gaining popularity as an HD video format medium. The UDO format is aimed at similar purposes. Blu-ray is currently embroiled in a bitter format war against the HD DVD disc.
Of course, I see another facet to the debate that I think needs considering: does the market even want a new format now? Honestly, I'm happy with DVDs, and have no desire to start 'converting' my collection; I saw my parents go through that with VHS, and I think if I stand isn't taken now, this could be a regular thing. The fact is, at the moment, both sides are losing badly to consumer apathy. Is this temporary?